In the shifting economic and market landscape of 2024, investors are grappling with a range of potential outcomes driven by inflation worries, fiscal and monetary policy shifts, and structural economic changes. In this week’s conversation with Economist Andrew Hunt, he emphasises the importance of a rigorous scenario-based strategy to navigate this uncertainty.

Hunt argues in this week’s conversation that the next 6-12 months present three potential scenarios that hinge on a few key policy decisions and economic developments. 

- In the first scenario, policymakers remain constrained by inflation concerns, leading to muted fiscal easing, steady bond yields, and range-bound equities. 

- The second scenario envisions a return to aggressive fiscal stimulus funded by monetisation, sparking a liquidity-driven rally in risk assets but also sowing the seeds for higher inflation. 

- A third scenario sees stimulus efforts going too far, triggering a 1970s-style inflationary spiral and a crisis of confidence.

While the probabilities of these near-term scenarios remain in flux, investors would be wise to assess how their portfolios would fare in each case. This doesn't mean making knee-jerk allocation changes at every shift in the winds. As Hunt notes, acting decisively on a view that isn't yet supported by clear evidence is akin to betting on a horse race. Instead, investors should thoughtfully consider which assets are likely to outperform or underperform in each scenario, and make measured tilts as new information tips the balance of probabilities.

Looking further out to 2025 and beyond, however, a clearer regime change may be taking shape. A world of constrained monetary and fiscal policy, higher interest rates, and a re-rating of goods-producing "real economy" businesses points to a very different investment landscape than the liquidity- and speculation-driven markets of the 2010s. Investors should be gradually positioning for this by seeking out companies with pricing power, resilient margins, and tangible value creation today rather than distant future promises.

In both the near and longer term, effective investing is likely to require nimbleness and a perhaps some patience - we think we can attach a reasonable probability to a medium term somewhat inflationary scenario but the opposite might be true in the short-term. This scenario analysis provides a structured framework to assess those possibilities and the assets best positioned to weather them but with some much conflicting data doing nothing might be teh right thing to do for a while. However, by rigorously gaming out how different futures could affect portfolios we hope to be in a position to be more decisive when the need to act comes.