Weekly Market Update

10-Year Series Part 5: The Anglo Saxon Property Reset and Productivity and Energy that Doesn't Cost the Earth

October 23, 2024

In the fifth instalment of our exploration into ten critical themes shaping the global economic landscape, InvestSense and Hunt Economics dive into: The Anglo Saxon Property Reset and Productivity and Energy that Doesn't Cost the Earth

Theme 9: The Anglo-Saxon Property Reset

High property prices have become a significant obstacle to economic growth, contributing to inequality and limiting economic potential. The path to resolving this imbalance can take three forms. The first is property price deflation, a painful and disruptive process. The second is wage inflation, a less painful but imperfect solution. The third, and most desirable but challenging, is achieving real wage growth driven by productivity gains. This approach would restore balance without the negative side effects of deflation or inflation.

Investment Implications:

Short-term:

- Next 9 months are critical, largely dependent on U.S. election outcomes

- Risk of property market crash if real interest rates rise significantly

- Potential for continued price support if QE persists

- Need to monitor policy decisions in major economies

Medium-term:

- Possible "creeping inflation" scenario to restore affordability

- Risk of Japanese-style property price deflation if policy mistakes made

- Regional variations in property market performance

- Need for defensive positioning in property-related investments

Long-term:

- Property likely to underperform other assets

- Structural shift in property's role in portfolios

- Need to focus on markets with productivity growth potential

- Reduced role of property as a wealth creation tool

Theme 10: Productivity and Energy that Doesn't Cost the Earth

Productivity growth is crucial to solving major economic challenges, particularly in energy efficiency and sustainability. Progress will depend on several key factors, including deregulation and reduced government intervention to foster innovation and competition. Breaking up monopolies will ensure a fairer distribution of market power, while education reform will prepare the workforce for a technology-driven future. Technological advancements will drive productivity and energy solutions, with sustainable energy being vital for long-term economic growth without harming the environment.

Investment Implications:

Short-term:

- Focus on companies demonstrating real productivity gains

- Opportunities in energy efficiency technologies

- Careful evaluation of "green" investments to avoid greenwashing

- Monitor government policy shifts affecting productivity and energy

Medium-term:

- Investment in companies driving genuine innovation

- Opportunities in sustainable energy solutions that don't require subsidies

- Focus on businesses benefiting from deregulation and market reforms

- Emphasis on education and technology sectors

Long-term:

- Strong performance potential for productivity leaders

- Significant opportunities in sustainable energy solutions

- Focus on companies driving real technological advancement

- Potential for substantial returns from breakthrough energy technologies

The Anglo-Saxon Property Reset and the push for productivity growth are deeply intertwined. While the property market faces considerable challenges, productivity-driven wage growth offers a long-term solution. At the same time, advancements in sustainable energy are critical for ensuring economic resilience and growth in the coming decades.

Next week, we will share a final wrap up of the key considerations that should be taken from these 10 themes for the next decade.  

Catch up on themes 1 & 2: China’s Minsky Moment and Asia’s broken model

Catch up on themes 3 & 4: QE Addiction and the Non-Bank Credit Boom

Catch up on themes 5 & 6: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be and Geopolitics

Catch up on themes 7 & 8: Japan & The Eurozone 

Equity market declines, resilient bond markets, and the AI perspective

August 2, 2024
We had intended to retire the AI but following some quite positive feedback (which we don’t usually get) it gets a reprieve.
Read More

Markets dream of a soft landing

August 2, 2024
Hopes of a soft economic landing permeated markets last week and even the hapless UK market caught a bid late in the week, leaving it up a percent along with the ASX, while Europe, Japan and he US ended the quarter on a high note, up by 2-3%.
Read More

Mixed labour data sows the seeds of doubt and volatility

August 2, 2024
Last week we saw some volatility creep into markets as we turned the page on a new financial year. US labour data was mixed but just strong enough to suggest that higher rates might be around for a bit longer. This caused some volatility in bond markets, with short term (2 year) rates up again and hitting 15-year highs.
Read More

Disinflation driven impulse jump-starts a broad rally

August 2, 2024
Most markets were up last week and while tech stocks and AI beneficiaries continued to lead the way the rally was more broad-based than we have seen recently, with most sectors and markets up by 2 - 5%.
Read More

Markets more or less flat as Fed continues as expected

August 2, 2024
Last week was uneventful and markets have been more or less flat for the last 10 days, with the exception of the UK, which rallied on the news that inflation was not as high as expected (though still higher than most places), plus some of the economic data has not been quite as dire as has been expected.
Read More

AI Written Markets Update

August 2, 2024
Read More

Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise

August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
Read More

Markets Up Despite Rising Bond Yields and Inflationary Data

August 2, 2024
Bond yields were up again last week but so were equity markets which was a nice change that lead to the first up week in the last four. In fact, while markets have been on the back foot recently, most commentators have been pleasantly surprised that they haven’t reacted too badly to an apparent wind shift in the gusty inflationary data.
Read More

SVB bankruptcy triggers swift response from the Fed

August 2, 2024
On Friday morning Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had been the 16th largest US bank and a successful S&P 500 company, but by Saturday morning it was bankrupt after a sudden run on its deposit base had rendered it unviable.
Read More

Oh, what a week!

August 2, 2024
Oh what a week! The Four Seasons hit might seem a bit upbeat for the occasion of a banking crisis, but the market has at least got its mojo back in the last few days.
Read More

US Tech and Emerging Markets Lead Recovery

August 2, 2024
Markets have calmed down a great deal in the last two weeks and more recently have mounted a bit of a recovery, with US tech and emerging markets leading the way.
Read More

Markets have mixed feelings about a slowing US economy

August 2, 2024
With many markets closed for a few days either side of the weekend and market liquidity very low, financial news has been mercifully subdued. There was mini-scare at the end of last week as a number of jobs-related reports came out which suggested that the overheating US economy might be slowing down.
Read More

"What do I tell a client who wants to invest in Crypto?"

August 2, 2024
With 2021 bringing cryptocurrencies into the spotlight for both retail and institutional investors, is there a place for these currencies within client portfolio's?
Read More

The market has a "breadth" problem

August 2, 2024
Join InvestSense Director Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics as they discuss the markets ‘breadth’ problem and how strong liquidity should keep things afloat until February.
Read More

Finding value and maintaining confidence in a FOMO world

August 2, 2024
Join host Toby Potter of IMAP with Nick Kirrage of Schroders and Jonathan Ramsay of InvestSense as they discuss value as a style, and as a driver of conviction when investing.
Read More

Inflation in 2022 - Beware of cross currents in 2022

August 2, 2024
With inflation appearing to be on the way up again, what are some of the possible scenario’s for 2022? Where does inflation go from the zero bound we’ve reached?
Read More

What happened in markets in 2021, and why?

August 2, 2024
Join InvestSense Director, Jonathon Ramsey to reflect on the price action seen in markets in 2021 and what this might mean for 2022.
Read More

We've got a bad case of FOMO, but it's not what you think

August 2, 2024
With valuation still being the lightening rod for when markets react to external forces, the most expensive things tend to move the most. What does this mean for global asset allocators, and what is InvestSense’s position?
Read More

Helping your clients assess the climate impact of their Portfolio

August 2, 2024
Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.
Read More

Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?

August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Read More

Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables

August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
Read More

Bad news equals good news

August 2, 2024
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
Read More

‘Buy the dip’ opportunism start surfacing

August 2, 2024
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
Read More

US momentarily dips into official bear market territory

August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
Read More

How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts

August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
Read More
Icon of a letter

InvestSense insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news