Weekly Market Update

Fluctuating global markets and mixed economic signals in the last week of May

June 4, 2024

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index experienced declines during most of last week but has recovered in recent days to end down just 0.3% at the time of writing. Inflation concerns weighed on sentiment, as unexpectedly high CPI data in April suggested that the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia may be more distant than previously anticipated. This led to broad-based losses across sectors, particularly in industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials. A lower iron ore price on global growth worries also meant the big miners detracted but Anglo American’s rebuffing of BHP’s takeover attempt had the biggest impact.  However, healthcare companies Telix Pharmaceuticals, Pro Medicus bucks the trend on encouraging results while Agricultural stocks like Australian Agricultural Co and Elders benefited from news that China had lifted its ban on Australian beef exports. Lastly, Dominos finally caught a bid, perhaps due to a ground breaking initiative as part of its Japanese roll-out strategy - pineapple injected into the crust mixed with mozzarella.    

Internationally, developed markets as measured by the MSCI World ex Australia Index declined by 0.5% in AUD terms, while emerging markets fared worse with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 3.6%. U.S. stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, fell 0.5%, while European markets such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and the German DAX were slightly negative for the week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was the best performing international marketer the past week after being the worst performer mid-week.

Nvidia continued to be a major focus in the U.S. market, with its stock contributing significantly to the tech-heavy Nasdaq's gains. However, the biggest moves during the week all happened on Friday in US trading when the Nasdaq fell by 2% before recovering most of those losses within hours. In the first instance a weak result from Salesforce's raised concerns about the broader cloud software industry. The company's slowing growth, attributed to longer sales cycles for large deals and the lack of immediate payoff from the hype surrounding artificial AI, suggests that the sector may be facing challenges in monetising the huge AI related expenses it has incurred. The jump in prices a few hours later was put down to month end rebalancing and all of this overshadowed the much awaited Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation print. As it happened it came in line with expectations at 0.25%. Although the three and six month numbers remain elevated the direction of travel seems to now be in the right direction. Looking forward, attention will likely turn to economic growth and whether this better inflation news is due to a much needed easing of pressure in the US  economy or a sharp deceleration in the consumer economy. 

Valuation vs foresight - part 2

August 2, 2024
Read More

US CPI beats economists' expectations

August 2, 2024
The most anticipated economic release of the week (and of the month) turned out to be simultaneously shocking and monotonous. The US Consumer Price Index for June came out at 9.1% Year-on-Year increase, much higher than the 8.8% growth predicted by economists.
Read More

Rebound in the Nasdaq

August 2, 2024
Markets were up more or less in unison last week despite, or really because of, largely weak economic data in the US and mixed results from the US earnings season.
Read More

Markets finish off the month with a strong week

August 2, 2024
Markets capped off a strong month with an even stronger week, with the leading US market up 4% for the week and 9% of for the month.
Read More

Japan - marching to a different tune

August 2, 2024
Join Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt as they discuss how Japan diverts from the norm when it comes to economics.
Read More

Regime change - past winners could become losers and vice-versa?

August 2, 2024
Join Jonathan Ramsay as he discusses the topic of regime changes and whether past winners could become losers and vice-versa?
Read More

Man vs Machine in Market Commentary

August 2, 2024
This week we used a couple of AI programs to produce an AI generated market summary, and then added our own commentary below for comparison.
Read More

The coming of the immaculate disinflation

August 2, 2024
US inflation moderated, the Federal Reserve temporally paused its rate hiking cycle while consumer sales and sentiment gauges firmed. On the face of it, this looks like an immaculate ‘disinflation’, and the dominant narrative in the press is that a resilient US consumer has fanned hopes of a soft landing.
Read More

Equity market declines, resilient bond markets, and the AI perspective

August 2, 2024
We had intended to retire the AI but following some quite positive feedback (which we don’t usually get) it gets a reprieve.
Read More

Markets dream of a soft landing

August 2, 2024
Hopes of a soft economic landing permeated markets last week and even the hapless UK market caught a bid late in the week, leaving it up a percent along with the ASX, while Europe, Japan and he US ended the quarter on a high note, up by 2-3%.
Read More

Mixed labour data sows the seeds of doubt and volatility

August 2, 2024
Last week we saw some volatility creep into markets as we turned the page on a new financial year. US labour data was mixed but just strong enough to suggest that higher rates might be around for a bit longer. This caused some volatility in bond markets, with short term (2 year) rates up again and hitting 15-year highs.
Read More

Disinflation driven impulse jump-starts a broad rally

August 2, 2024
Most markets were up last week and while tech stocks and AI beneficiaries continued to lead the way the rally was more broad-based than we have seen recently, with most sectors and markets up by 2 - 5%.
Read More

"What do I tell a client who wants to invest in Crypto?"

August 2, 2024
With 2021 bringing cryptocurrencies into the spotlight for both retail and institutional investors, is there a place for these currencies within client portfolio's?
Read More

The market has a "breadth" problem

August 2, 2024
Join InvestSense Director Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics as they discuss the markets ‘breadth’ problem and how strong liquidity should keep things afloat until February.
Read More

Finding value and maintaining confidence in a FOMO world

August 2, 2024
Join host Toby Potter of IMAP with Nick Kirrage of Schroders and Jonathan Ramsay of InvestSense as they discuss value as a style, and as a driver of conviction when investing.
Read More

Inflation in 2022 - Beware of cross currents in 2022

August 2, 2024
With inflation appearing to be on the way up again, what are some of the possible scenario’s for 2022? Where does inflation go from the zero bound we’ve reached?
Read More

What happened in markets in 2021, and why?

August 2, 2024
Join InvestSense Director, Jonathon Ramsey to reflect on the price action seen in markets in 2021 and what this might mean for 2022.
Read More

We've got a bad case of FOMO, but it's not what you think

August 2, 2024
With valuation still being the lightening rod for when markets react to external forces, the most expensive things tend to move the most. What does this mean for global asset allocators, and what is InvestSense’s position?
Read More

Helping your clients assess the climate impact of their Portfolio

August 2, 2024
Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.
Read More

Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?

August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Read More

Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables

August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
Read More

Bad news equals good news

August 2, 2024
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
Read More

‘Buy the dip’ opportunism start surfacing

August 2, 2024
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
Read More

US momentarily dips into official bear market territory

August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
Read More

How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts

August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
Read More
Icon of a letter

InvestSense insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news