Weekly Market Update

Fluctuating global markets and mixed economic signals in the last week of May

June 4, 2024

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index experienced declines during most of last week but has recovered in recent days to end down just 0.3% at the time of writing. Inflation concerns weighed on sentiment, as unexpectedly high CPI data in April suggested that the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia may be more distant than previously anticipated. This led to broad-based losses across sectors, particularly in industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials. A lower iron ore price on global growth worries also meant the big miners detracted but Anglo American’s rebuffing of BHP’s takeover attempt had the biggest impact.  However, healthcare companies Telix Pharmaceuticals, Pro Medicus bucks the trend on encouraging results while Agricultural stocks like Australian Agricultural Co and Elders benefited from news that China had lifted its ban on Australian beef exports. Lastly, Dominos finally caught a bid, perhaps due to a ground breaking initiative as part of its Japanese roll-out strategy - pineapple injected into the crust mixed with mozzarella.    

Internationally, developed markets as measured by the MSCI World ex Australia Index declined by 0.5% in AUD terms, while emerging markets fared worse with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 3.6%. U.S. stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, fell 0.5%, while European markets such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and the German DAX were slightly negative for the week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was the best performing international marketer the past week after being the worst performer mid-week.

Nvidia continued to be a major focus in the U.S. market, with its stock contributing significantly to the tech-heavy Nasdaq's gains. However, the biggest moves during the week all happened on Friday in US trading when the Nasdaq fell by 2% before recovering most of those losses within hours. In the first instance a weak result from Salesforce's raised concerns about the broader cloud software industry. The company's slowing growth, attributed to longer sales cycles for large deals and the lack of immediate payoff from the hype surrounding artificial AI, suggests that the sector may be facing challenges in monetising the huge AI related expenses it has incurred. The jump in prices a few hours later was put down to month end rebalancing and all of this overshadowed the much awaited Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation print. As it happened it came in line with expectations at 0.25%. Although the three and six month numbers remain elevated the direction of travel seems to now be in the right direction. Looking forward, attention will likely turn to economic growth and whether this better inflation news is due to a much needed easing of pressure in the US  economy or a sharp deceleration in the consumer economy. 

Markets face biggest one day drop since March 2020

August 2, 2024
Markets suffered their biggest one day fall since the height of the pandemic provoked market crisis in March 2020, with the US Nasdaq down 5.5% and the S&P 500 down 4.3% after the latest US inflation numbers showed core inflation still on the rise even though energy prices have been on the wane.
Read More

Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub & Andrew Hunt: The Hunt for liquidity

August 2, 2024
In this weeks video Jonathan Tolub presents our monthly summary of research from our partner Hunt Economics.
Read More

Will the Fed's continued tightening cause something to break?

August 2, 2024
Markets continued to fall last week, touching the lows seen in mid-June and leading many to question whether the buy on the dip trade was finally dead. Not coincidentally, long-term bond yields also pushed through the highs seen in June, as the US Fed raised rates another 0.75% and Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation via interest rate policy.
Read More

Focus on currencies: Time to hedge?

August 2, 2024
Read More

Quantitative tightening and liquidity: More than one reason we might see higher bond yields?

August 2, 2024
Read More

Q3 Manager and Diversified Portfolio Performance Summary

August 2, 2024
In this week's video Jonathan Ramsay summarises the performance of managers and diversified portfolios up to Q3, answering the question: 'did active management add value in 2022?'
Read More

US Labor Upswing, Eurozone Inflation, and China's Policy Shifts

August 2, 2024
The week of August 28th to September 1st, 2023, saw a delicate balance between economic indicators and market sentiment play out in markets. The United States enjoyed what appears to be Goldilocks labor conditions, with strong job growth and a tightening labor market.
Read More

Global Economic Sentiment Shifts as US Data Strengthens whilst Eurozone Data Weakens

August 2, 2024
Global economic sentiment shifted in the week as US data strengthened, and Eurozone data weakened. Weaker global economic data raised concerns about central bank hawkishness, leading to a stronger US dollar and weaker currencies. Crude oil prices remained resilient amid supply concerns, while tech stocks led US markets lower as Apple took a hit.
Read More

US Markets Closed Flat, China Stabilizes, and the End of Monetary Tightening in Europe?

August 2, 2024
Despite higher-than-expected US CPI data, bond and equity markets remained calm initially. The jump in inflation was attributed to a temporary rise in energy prices and air travel. However, volatility set in due to the IPO of British chip maker ARM, pushing markets up by around 2%. Fears of a further rate hike set in causing US markets to close flat. Conversely, European, Australian, and UK markets ended the week positively, driven by the performance companies reliant on Chinese exports.
Read More

Markets Slammed By Hawkish Rhetoric Despite Pause From The Fed

August 2, 2024
Equity markets around the world fell more or less in unison last week by about 3-4%, before bouncing slightly on Friday. The UK was really the only market to buck the trend, as the Bank of England unexpectedly kept rates on hold after inflation fell by more than forecast.
Read More

Sticky Inflation Concerns Put Markets on the Back Foot

August 2, 2024
Last week markets were down again, reflecting the trends that took root in September - long-term yields pushing higher with markets on the back foot.
Read More

Riding the Market Rollercoaster

August 2, 2024
If we had written this commentary early in the week as intended, we would have said that markets were still on the back foot, as they were down another few percent. However, having got to the end of this week things have improved quite a bit and most markets are now actually up a few percent, with China leading the way.
Read More

Markets slid again last week, with a concentrated sell off in US tech

August 2, 2024
Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.
Read More

Recession fears build, yet equity markets end the week higher

August 2, 2024
Fears of a US recession later this year gathered pace last week and the US equity market jumped by almost 7% and the Nasdaq was up some 9%.
Read More

Inflation - Flash Update

August 2, 2024
In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.
Read More

Interest rate sensitivity persists into the new year

August 2, 2024
During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.
Read More

Strong start to the year continues despite recession concerns

August 2, 2024
As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.
Read More

Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise

August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
Read More

Helping your clients assess the climate impact of their Portfolio

August 2, 2024
Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.
Read More

Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?

August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Read More

Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables

August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
Read More

Bad news equals good news

August 2, 2024
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
Read More

‘Buy the dip’ opportunism start surfacing

August 2, 2024
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
Read More

US momentarily dips into official bear market territory

August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
Read More

How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts

August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
Read More
Icon of a letter

InvestSense insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news