Mixed labour data sows the seeds of doubt and volatility
August 2, 2024
Last week we saw some volatility creep into markets as we turned the page on a new financial year. US labour data was mixed but just strong enough to suggest that higher rates might be around for a bit longer. This caused some volatility in bond markets, with short term (2 year) rates up again and hitting 15-year highs.
Disinflation driven impulse jump-starts a broad rally
August 2, 2024
Most markets were up last week and while tech stocks and AI beneficiaries continued to lead the way the rally was more broad-based than we have seen recently, with most sectors and markets up by 2 - 5%.
Markets more or less flat as Fed continues as expected
August 2, 2024
Last week was uneventful and markets have been more or less flat for the last 10 days, with the exception of the UK, which rallied on the news that inflation was not as high as expected (though still higher than most places), plus some of the economic data has not been quite as dire as has been expected.
Markets face biggest one day drop since March 2020
August 2, 2024
Markets suffered their biggest one day fall since the height of the pandemic provoked market crisis in March 2020, with the US Nasdaq down 5.5% and the S&P 500 down 4.3% after the latest US inflation numbers showed core inflation still on the rise even though energy prices have been on the wane.
Will the Fed's continued tightening cause something to break?
August 2, 2024
Markets continued to fall last week, touching the lows seen in mid-June and leading many to question whether the buy on the dip trade was finally dead. Not coincidentally, long-term bond yields also pushed through the highs seen in June, as the US Fed raised rates another 0.75% and Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation via interest rate policy.
Markets finished the month with another down week (about -3% for most markets), leaving equity markets down around 10% for the month and around 5% for the quarter.
It felt like we had a full business cycle last week with market euphoria earlier in the week give way to more worries about rising interest rates later on, leaving markets up a percent or so after a 6% round trip.
Volatile ride continues as markets react to inflation data
August 2, 2024
The volatility continued last week, and when the roulette stopped at the end of the week the US was down by almost 2% and the Nasdaq by a bit more than 3% along with emerging markets (mainly weighed down by China).
Markets slid again last week, with a concentrated sell off in US tech
August 2, 2024
Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.
In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.
Interest rate sensitivity persists into the new year
August 2, 2024
During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.
Strong start to the year continues despite recession concerns
August 2, 2024
As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.
Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise
August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...