Inflation - looking through the noise part 1 - the US

August 15, 2018

Booming Small Caps to Bond Spreads Tightening

August 2, 2024
It was a mildly positive week for global markets, with the S&P/ASX 300 gaining 0.7%. International developed markets were down 0.4% in AUD terms as measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia index.
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Big Tech Flexes Its Muscles With Late Week Surge

August 2, 2024
It was a mixed week in global financial markets as the market continued to assess the likelihood of a hard or soft landing next year and the implication for inflation and interest
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Santa (Powell) Has Come Early For Markets

August 2, 2024
The last week in markets, as is often the case, was totally dominated by the US economy and monetary policy. In this case it was an encouraging inflation print on Wednesday, followed by the US Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold the next day.
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Recap of 2023: Two Stories With The Same Ending

August 2, 2024
This week started with more optimism about the US economy and further stock market gains until a sharp pullback on Wednesday snapped the US market’s nine-session winning streak. Thursday then saw a recovery, putting the S&P 500 back on track for an eighth week of gains, after US inflation data showed a gradual economic cooling in line with Fed hopes.
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Rocking the Boat - Equities Stumble After Big Tech Selloff

August 2, 2024
After outsized gains in big tech stocks last year, global equities have stumbled over the past week amidst a tech selloff, challenging the notion of their invulnerability and potentially signaling a shift in market optimism tied to recent liquidity trends.
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Markets Shrug Off Surprise Upside in US Inflation

August 2, 2024
Despite a higher-than-expected rise in US CPI for December 2022, markets remained relatively sanguine over the implications for growth and monetary policy.
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Market resilience fueled by the AI frenzy

August 2, 2024
It may be drawing a long bow but it now seems plausible that, just below the surface, AI inspired optimism has helped markets remain surprising resilient throughout this year, particularly when facing the US regional banking crisis that started in mid-March and more recently the polemic surrounding the US Debt Ceiling.
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Man vs Machine in Market Commentary

August 2, 2024
This week we used a couple of AI programs to produce an AI generated market summary, and then added our own commentary below for comparison.
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The coming of the immaculate disinflation

August 2, 2024
US inflation moderated, the Federal Reserve temporally paused its rate hiking cycle while consumer sales and sentiment gauges firmed. On the face of it, this looks like an immaculate ‘disinflation’, and the dominant narrative in the press is that a resilient US consumer has fanned hopes of a soft landing.
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Equity market declines, resilient bond markets, and the AI perspective

August 2, 2024
We had intended to retire the AI but following some quite positive feedback (which we don’t usually get) it gets a reprieve.
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Markets dream of a soft landing

August 2, 2024
Hopes of a soft economic landing permeated markets last week and even the hapless UK market caught a bid late in the week, leaving it up a percent along with the ASX, while Europe, Japan and he US ended the quarter on a high note, up by 2-3%.
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Mixed labour data sows the seeds of doubt and volatility

August 2, 2024
Last week we saw some volatility creep into markets as we turned the page on a new financial year. US labour data was mixed but just strong enough to suggest that higher rates might be around for a bit longer. This caused some volatility in bond markets, with short term (2 year) rates up again and hitting 15-year highs.
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Andrew Hunt's visit to New York and some key implications for global markets

August 2, 2024
Last week Andrew visited the InvestSense offices and shared his observations and findings from his visit to the United States, specifically New York.
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Helping your clients assess the climate impact of their Portfolio

August 2, 2024
Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.
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Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?

August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
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Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables

August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
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Bad news equals good news

August 2, 2024
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
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‘Buy the dip’ opportunism start surfacing

August 2, 2024
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
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US momentarily dips into official bear market territory

August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
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How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts

August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
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