The week of August 28th to September 1st, 2023, saw a delicate balance between economic indicators and market sentiment play out in markets. The United States enjoyed what appears to be Goldilocks labor conditions, with strong job growth and a tightening labor market.

Global economic sentiment shifted in the week as US data strengthened, and Eurozone data weakened. Weaker global economic data raised concerns about central bank hawkishness, leading to a stronger US dollar and weaker currencies. Crude oil prices remained resilient amid supply concerns, while tech stocks led US markets lower as Apple took a hit.

Despite higher-than-expected US CPI data, bond and equity markets remained calm initially. The jump in inflation was attributed to a temporary rise in energy prices and air travel. However, volatility set in due to the IPO of British chip maker ARM, pushing markets up by around 2%. Fears of a further rate hike set in causing US markets to close flat. Conversely, European, Australian, and UK markets ended the week positively, driven by the performance companies reliant on Chinese exports.

Equity markets around the world fell more or less in unison last week by about 3-4%, before bouncing slightly on Friday. The UK was really the only market to buck the trend, as the Bank of England unexpectedly kept rates on hold after inflation fell by more than forecast.

Last week markets were down again, reflecting the trends that took root in September - long-term yields pushing higher with markets on the back foot.

If we had written this commentary early in the week as intended, we would have said that markets were still on the back foot, as they were down another few percent. However, having got to the end of this week things have improved quite a bit and most markets are now actually up a few percent, with China leading the way.

Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.

Fears of a US recession later this year gathered pace last week and the US equity market jumped by almost 7% and the Nasdaq was up some 9%.

In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.

During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.

As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.

Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.

Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.

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In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.

The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.

The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.

Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...