Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
Markets start to believe central banks are genuine about tightening
August 2, 2024
The relative calm that markets had enjoyed during most of the Ukraine war broke last week, perhaps reminding us that financial conditions remain a key concern for markets in ways that are often less obvious than attention gapping geopolitical headlines.
We discuss Quantitative Tightening with our colleagues from Hunt Economics. With indicators continuing to show the risk of increasing inflation, central banks are looking at strategies to curb the inflation risk.
On the face of it was a fairly quiet week leading into the Easter break with most markets ending flat for the shortened week; however, you didn’t have to look too far below the surface to find volatility.
The Nasdaq finished the week with another 4% fall on Friday, closing down 13% for the month and more than 20% year to date. The wider US market was also down sharply and is now down 9% and 13% for the month and year to date respectively.
The US S&P 500 was down for the 5th week in a row last week but only by 0.6%, a margin that belied what was in fact an incredibly volatile week. The Nasdaq was up by over 5% on Wednesday only to fall by even more on Thursday.
It has seemed all week that, in quiet US holiday trading, the only thing moving markets was the ‘will they/won’t they’ speculation about the future role of OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman.
It was a mildly positive week for global markets, with the S&P/ASX 300 gaining 0.7%. International developed markets were down 0.4% in AUD terms as measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia index.
It was a mixed week in global financial markets as the market continued to assess the likelihood of a hard or soft landing next year and the implication for inflation and interest
The last week in markets, as is often the case, was totally dominated by the US economy and monetary policy. In this case it was an encouraging inflation print on Wednesday, followed by the US Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold the next day.
This week started with more optimism about the US economy and further stock market gains until a sharp pullback on Wednesday snapped the US market’s nine-session winning streak. Thursday then saw a recovery, putting the S&P 500 back on track for an eighth week of gains, after US inflation data showed a gradual economic cooling in line with Fed hopes.
Rocking the Boat - Equities Stumble After Big Tech Selloff
August 2, 2024
After outsized gains in big tech stocks last year, global equities have stumbled over the past week amidst a tech selloff, challenging the notion of their invulnerability and potentially signaling a shift in market optimism tied to recent liquidity trends.
"What do I tell a client who wants to invest in Crypto?"
August 2, 2024
With 2021 bringing cryptocurrencies into the spotlight for both retail and institutional investors, is there a place for these currencies within client portfolio's?
Join InvestSense Director Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics as they discuss the markets ‘breadth’ problem and how strong liquidity should keep things afloat until February.
Finding value and maintaining confidence in a FOMO world
August 2, 2024
Join host Toby Potter of IMAP with Nick Kirrage of Schroders and Jonathan Ramsay of InvestSense as they discuss value as a style, and as a driver of conviction when investing.
Inflation in 2022 - Beware of cross currents in 2022
August 2, 2024
With inflation appearing to be on the way up again, what are some of the possible scenario’s for 2022? Where does inflation go from the zero bound we’ve reached?
We've got a bad case of FOMO, but it's not what you think
August 2, 2024
With valuation still being the lightening rod for when markets react to external forces, the most expensive things tend to move the most. What does this mean for global asset allocators, and what is InvestSense’s position?
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
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