Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
We discuss Quantitative Tightening with our colleagues from Hunt Economics. With indicators continuing to show the risk of increasing inflation, central banks are looking at strategies to curb the inflation risk.
On the face of it was a fairly quiet week leading into the Easter break with most markets ending flat for the shortened week; however, you didn’t have to look too far below the surface to find volatility.
The Nasdaq finished the week with another 4% fall on Friday, closing down 13% for the month and more than 20% year to date. The wider US market was also down sharply and is now down 9% and 13% for the month and year to date respectively.
The US S&P 500 was down for the 5th week in a row last week but only by 0.6%, a margin that belied what was in fact an incredibly volatile week. The Nasdaq was up by over 5% on Wednesday only to fall by even more on Thursday.
Markets have been resting while the US sleeps and gyrating when US markets open. Most of the world market is listed in the US but the difference in volatility between the US has become ever more pronounced in recent weeks.
Markets slid again last week, with a concentrated sell off in US tech
August 2, 2024
Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.
Bulls and bears traded blows that resulted in multiple 4% round trips during the week
August 2, 2024
The to and fro of US markets last week resembled the titanic struggle between Nadal and Medvedev with bulls and bears trading blows that resulted in multiple 4% round trips during the week.
The main news of the week happened as the European market closed. An unequivocal warning by US intelligence that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might be imminent.
In what has become a familiar pattern, markets rose in the early part of the week amid signs that Putin’s aggressive posturing towards Ukraine might be just that, only to fall back as he appears to up the ante yet again.
Investors attempt to price in the invasion and the ensuing sanctions on Russia
August 2, 2024
After repeated warnings from Western intelligence, which most geopolitical experts were skeptical of, Putin invaded Ukraine. Markets fell sharply, especially in the US, but later rebounded and ended the week flat (or up by 2% in the case of the US).
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
