Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
Markets started the week on the back foot but rallied into the end of the week after what many called a ‘soft’ CPI print. Year on year inflation came in at 8.5%, below the 9.1% from the month before and slightly below the 8.7% that had been expected.
US dips down while Australia dances to a different tune
August 2, 2024
Markets were down last week and, as we all have come to expect, speculation around inflation was the lightning rod that fed into interest rate expectations and then onto US tech stocks especially.
Last week there was much speculation about whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s annual Jackson Hole speech would be a market moving event or not, and it turned out it was, for equity markets at least.
Deep dive on Australian inflation and the latest from the US
August 2, 2024
In this week's video we take a closer look at inflation, in particular the Fed's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator measure, and compare that with the latest quarterly numbers from Australia.
Markets face biggest one day drop since March 2020
August 2, 2024
Markets suffered their biggest one day fall since the height of the pandemic provoked market crisis in March 2020, with the US Nasdaq down 5.5% and the S&P 500 down 4.3% after the latest US inflation numbers showed core inflation still on the rise even though energy prices have been on the wane.
Will the Fed's continued tightening cause something to break?
August 2, 2024
Markets continued to fall last week, touching the lows seen in mid-June and leading many to question whether the buy on the dip trade was finally dead. Not coincidentally, long-term bond yields also pushed through the highs seen in June, as the US Fed raised rates another 0.75% and Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation via interest rate policy.
Markets finished the month with another down week (about -3% for most markets), leaving equity markets down around 10% for the month and around 5% for the quarter.
It felt like we had a full business cycle last week with market euphoria earlier in the week give way to more worries about rising interest rates later on, leaving markets up a percent or so after a 6% round trip.
Volatile ride continues as markets react to inflation data
August 2, 2024
The volatility continued last week, and when the roulette stopped at the end of the week the US was down by almost 2% and the Nasdaq by a bit more than 3% along with emerging markets (mainly weighed down by China).
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...