Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
Central banks remain wary as US inflation comes down
August 2, 2024
Uncertainty stalked markets last week amidst a raft of rate hikes, but the focus on inflation shifted from the US – where the news was ostensibly quite good – towards Europe, where inflation pressures continue unabated.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
Interest rate sensitivity persists into the new year
August 2, 2024
During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.
Strong start to the year continues despite recession concerns
August 2, 2024
As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.
Markets ended up a few percent last week, but only after a mid-week earnings scare triggered by a flat result and weak guidance from Microsoft. This week markets have been a little volatile but flat overall, leaving most markets up 5-10% for January.
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It may be drawing a long bow but it now seems plausible that, just below the surface, AI inspired optimism has helped markets remain surprising resilient throughout this year, particularly when facing the US regional banking crisis that started in mid-March and more recently the polemic surrounding the US Debt Ceiling.
US inflation moderated, the Federal Reserve temporally paused its rate hiking cycle while consumer sales and sentiment gauges firmed. On the face of it, this looks like an immaculate ‘disinflation’, and the dominant narrative in the press is that a resilient US consumer has fanned hopes of a soft landing.
Hopes of a soft economic landing permeated markets last week and even the hapless UK market caught a bid late in the week, leaving it up a percent along with the ASX, while Europe, Japan and he US ended the quarter on a high note, up by 2-3%.
Mixed labour data sows the seeds of doubt and volatility
August 2, 2024
Last week we saw some volatility creep into markets as we turned the page on a new financial year. US labour data was mixed but just strong enough to suggest that higher rates might be around for a bit longer. This caused some volatility in bond markets, with short term (2 year) rates up again and hitting 15-year highs.
"What do I tell a client who wants to invest in Crypto?"
August 2, 2024
With 2021 bringing cryptocurrencies into the spotlight for both retail and institutional investors, is there a place for these currencies within client portfolio's?
Join InvestSense Director Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics as they discuss the markets ‘breadth’ problem and how strong liquidity should keep things afloat until February.
Finding value and maintaining confidence in a FOMO world
August 2, 2024
Join host Toby Potter of IMAP with Nick Kirrage of Schroders and Jonathan Ramsay of InvestSense as they discuss value as a style, and as a driver of conviction when investing.
Inflation in 2022 - Beware of cross currents in 2022
August 2, 2024
With inflation appearing to be on the way up again, what are some of the possible scenario’s for 2022? Where does inflation go from the zero bound we’ve reached?
We've got a bad case of FOMO, but it's not what you think
August 2, 2024
With valuation still being the lightening rod for when markets react to external forces, the most expensive things tend to move the most. What does this mean for global asset allocators, and what is InvestSense’s position?
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
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