Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
Markets think ‘we’re there’ in the global fight against inflation – but are we? Last week the RBA also proclaimed confidently that local inflation had peaked, so you might think it’s all downhill from here...
Markets were again on the back foot last week. However, despite a fair amount of volatility, most markets were flat or only down by 1% or so. There seems to be an ongoing battle of wills between markets and the various central banks who are keen to talk down markets, lest the wealth effects of a buoyant market detract from the ongoing fight against inflation.
Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise
August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
Markets Up Despite Rising Bond Yields and Inflationary Data
August 2, 2024
Bond yields were up again last week but so were equity markets which was a nice change that lead to the first up week in the last four. In fact, while markets have been on the back foot recently, most commentators have been pleasantly surprised that they haven’t reacted too badly to an apparent wind shift in the gusty inflationary data.
SVB bankruptcy triggers swift response from the Fed
August 2, 2024
On Friday morning Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had been the 16th largest US bank and a successful S&P 500 company, but by Saturday morning it was bankrupt after a sudden run on its deposit base had rendered it unviable.
Oh what a week! The Four Seasons hit might seem a bit upbeat for the occasion of a banking crisis, but the market has at least got its mojo back in the last few days.
Markets slid again last week, with a concentrated sell off in US tech
August 2, 2024
Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.
Bulls and bears traded blows that resulted in multiple 4% round trips during the week
August 2, 2024
The to and fro of US markets last week resembled the titanic struggle between Nadal and Medvedev with bulls and bears trading blows that resulted in multiple 4% round trips during the week.
The main news of the week happened as the European market closed. An unequivocal warning by US intelligence that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might be imminent.
In what has become a familiar pattern, markets rose in the early part of the week amid signs that Putin’s aggressive posturing towards Ukraine might be just that, only to fall back as he appears to up the ante yet again.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
Join Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt as they discuss what the future holds for the Chinese growth model, Where to from here, and what will the implications be for the west…
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
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