Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
Markets Retreat on Fading Rate Cut Hopes Before Late Rally
August 2, 2024
Risk assets broadly declined last week as economic data showed resilience and central banks pushed back against aggressive market pricing for rate cuts, puncturing investor hopes.
Last week saw a notable upswing in global equities, driven by optimism over a potential economic stimulus in China and dubious results in corporate earnings.
Amid a mixed bag of US corporate earnings and a strong jobs report fueling rate hike expectations, global markets face contrasting fortunes, highlighting the complexity of forecasting economic trends in a time of technological growth and geopolitical uncertainty.
Unpacking a Volatile Week Amid Inflation Warnings and Surprising Strengths
August 2, 2024
Markets gyrated last week as hotter-than-expected US inflation data sparked an initial tech rout before recovering. Meanwhile better-than-feared earnings results and recession-resilient emerging markets outperformed.
Investors attempt to price in the invasion and the ensuing sanctions on Russia
August 2, 2024
After repeated warnings from Western intelligence, which most geopolitical experts were skeptical of, Putin invaded Ukraine. Markets fell sharply, especially in the US, but later rebounded and ended the week flat (or up by 2% in the case of the US).
Commodity markets continue to climb and push on inflation
August 2, 2024
It was another volatile week for stock markets, and even more so for commodity, currency and bonds as investors struggled to digest the implications of expelling Russia from the global economy.
London Metal Exchanges halts nickel trading as volatility threatens solvency
August 2, 2024
It was another volatile week for stock markets, and even more so for commodity, currency and bonds as investors struggled to digest the implications of expelling Russia from the global economy.
Fed raises rates for the first time in 2 years since Covid
August 2, 2024
For the second week in a row, markets looked through the current horrors of the Ukraine war and were up between 2% (Australia) and some 6% (for the S&P 500). That leaves European markets down slightly since the war started on 24th February, the US level pegging, and the resource rich Australian economy up almost 5%.
Markets were up again last week for the third week in a row which leaves the US, Japan, and Australia up over 5% and even Europe up a few percent since the invasion of Ukraine.
Another mostly positive week for shares left markets in positive territory for March despite, or perhaps even because of the war in Ukraine, with Australia, the best performing market up by almost 6%. This was mostly thanks to Energy stocks and in Australia’s case Iron Ore prices as well as the other commodities that we produce.
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...