Monthly Macro with Jonathan Tolub and Hunt Economics: A deeper dive into the three scenarios the market is cycling through: Goldilocks, Recession and Entrenched Inflation
We've got a bad case of FOMO, but it's not what you think
August 2, 2024
With valuation still being the lightening rod for when markets react to external forces, the most expensive things tend to move the most. What does this mean for global asset allocators, and what is InvestSense’s position?
Markets ended up on the back foot after an unexpected U-turn by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on inflation. Or was it so unexpected?
August 2, 2024
Markets ended up on the back foot after an unexpected U-turn by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on inflation. The large local miners and banks fared much better but Australian market was dragged down by quite big reactions to news from a handful of stocks.
After a volatile start to the month the traditional Santa Rally kicked in during the penultimate week of the year in the lead up to Christmas Day (and has continued overseas in the overseas markets that have been trading since then).
It turned out to be another banner year for markets, the third straight one in a row, taking most markets, and especially US markets, to all time highs.
Tech stocks on the back foot, interest rate expectations rise
August 2, 2024
It turned out to be another banner year for markets, the third straight one in a row, taking most markets, and especially US markets, to all time highs.
We discuss Quantitative Tightening with our colleagues from Hunt Economics. With indicators continuing to show the risk of increasing inflation, central banks are looking at strategies to curb the inflation risk.
On the face of it was a fairly quiet week leading into the Easter break with most markets ending flat for the shortened week; however, you didn’t have to look too far below the surface to find volatility.
The Nasdaq finished the week with another 4% fall on Friday, closing down 13% for the month and more than 20% year to date. The wider US market was also down sharply and is now down 9% and 13% for the month and year to date respectively.
The US S&P 500 was down for the 5th week in a row last week but only by 0.6%, a margin that belied what was in fact an incredibly volatile week. The Nasdaq was up by over 5% on Wednesday only to fall by even more on Thursday.
Markets have been resting while the US sleeps and gyrating when US markets open. Most of the world market is listed in the US but the difference in volatility between the US has become ever more pronounced in recent weeks.
Markets slid again last week, with a concentrated sell off in US tech
August 2, 2024
Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.
In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.
Interest rate sensitivity persists into the new year
August 2, 2024
During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.
Strong start to the year continues despite recession concerns
August 2, 2024
As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.
Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise
August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?
August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables
August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
US momentarily dips into official bear market territory
August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts
August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...