Uncertainty stalked markets last week amidst a raft of rate hikes, but the focus on inflation shifted from the US – where the news was ostensibly quite good – towards Europe, where inflation pressures continue unabated.

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During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.

As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.

Markets ended up a few percent last week, but only after a mid-week earnings scare triggered by a flat result and weak guidance from Microsoft. This week markets have been a little volatile but flat overall, leaving most markets up 5-10% for January.

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