Weekly Market Update

Tech Gains and Conflicting Economic Signals Drive a Mixed Market

June 12, 2024

Recent market trends have underscored a robust performance in the technology sector, notably driven by giants like Nvidia and Apple. These advances come against a backdrop of fluctuating economic data and central bank activities that are shaping mixed market conditions. 

The U.S. markets experienced a positive week, with the S&P 500 rising by about 2%, largely driven by the technology sector. Despite strong employment growth suggesting a robust economy with 272,000 new jobs added last month, mixed signals such as a sharply contracting manufacturing index (falling to 47.2 from 49.5) and reduced job openings, which dropped to a three-year low of 8.1 million, indicate a complex economic environment. These contrasting data points create a cautiously optimistic market sentiment.

With inflation still high, central banks around the world, including the ECB and the Federal Reserve, face challenges in balancing economic growth with inflation control. The anticipation around the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, especially coinciding with the key inflation CPI report which is expected to show a 0.25% increase. While the Fed is anticipated to hold interest rates steady, the CPI data will be closely scrutinised for signs of persistent inflation. Any deviation from expected inflation figures could influence market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing a challenging environment. Inflation remains high, and the RBA is expected to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period compared to other advanced economies. This is partly due to the RBA's cautious approach to rate hikes in the past, which now necessitates a prolonged period of higher rates to manage inflation. The Australian economy is particularly sensitive to short-term interest rates due to the prevalence of variable mortgage rates, making the RBA's decisions critically impactful on the domestic economy .

The technology sector continues to outperform, with Nvidia recently pushing its market value above $3 trillion following strong quarterly earnings. This sector's success is providing a counterbalance to some of the negative economic indicators, influencing overall market confidence and investor strategies. The Nasdaq composite, heavily influenced by tech stocks, hit a new record high, further underscoring the sector’s impact.

Meme stocks made a notable comeback, with GameStop surging 21% after a Reddit account linked to meme-stock icon Keith Gill posted a screenshot showing a $116 million position in the stock . AMC Entertainment also closed 11% higher .However, by the end of the week, GameStop shares had slid 39% following a volatile trading session .

In summary, the past week's market movements were influenced by strong performances in the tech sector and mixed economic signals. The upcoming weeks will be pivotal as key inflation and economic data are released, providing critical insights into the future direction of monetary policies in the U.S. and Australia. Investors and policymakers alike will be closely monitoring these developments to gauge the health of the global economy and the effectiveness of measures to control inflation.

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