Weekly Market Update

Tech Gains and Conflicting Economic Signals Drive a Mixed Market

June 12, 2024

Recent market trends have underscored a robust performance in the technology sector, notably driven by giants like Nvidia and Apple. These advances come against a backdrop of fluctuating economic data and central bank activities that are shaping mixed market conditions. 

The U.S. markets experienced a positive week, with the S&P 500 rising by about 2%, largely driven by the technology sector. Despite strong employment growth suggesting a robust economy with 272,000 new jobs added last month, mixed signals such as a sharply contracting manufacturing index (falling to 47.2 from 49.5) and reduced job openings, which dropped to a three-year low of 8.1 million, indicate a complex economic environment. These contrasting data points create a cautiously optimistic market sentiment.

With inflation still high, central banks around the world, including the ECB and the Federal Reserve, face challenges in balancing economic growth with inflation control. The anticipation around the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, especially coinciding with the key inflation CPI report which is expected to show a 0.25% increase. While the Fed is anticipated to hold interest rates steady, the CPI data will be closely scrutinised for signs of persistent inflation. Any deviation from expected inflation figures could influence market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing a challenging environment. Inflation remains high, and the RBA is expected to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period compared to other advanced economies. This is partly due to the RBA's cautious approach to rate hikes in the past, which now necessitates a prolonged period of higher rates to manage inflation. The Australian economy is particularly sensitive to short-term interest rates due to the prevalence of variable mortgage rates, making the RBA's decisions critically impactful on the domestic economy .

The technology sector continues to outperform, with Nvidia recently pushing its market value above $3 trillion following strong quarterly earnings. This sector's success is providing a counterbalance to some of the negative economic indicators, influencing overall market confidence and investor strategies. The Nasdaq composite, heavily influenced by tech stocks, hit a new record high, further underscoring the sector’s impact.

Meme stocks made a notable comeback, with GameStop surging 21% after a Reddit account linked to meme-stock icon Keith Gill posted a screenshot showing a $116 million position in the stock . AMC Entertainment also closed 11% higher .However, by the end of the week, GameStop shares had slid 39% following a volatile trading session .

In summary, the past week's market movements were influenced by strong performances in the tech sector and mixed economic signals. The upcoming weeks will be pivotal as key inflation and economic data are released, providing critical insights into the future direction of monetary policies in the U.S. and Australia. Investors and policymakers alike will be closely monitoring these developments to gauge the health of the global economy and the effectiveness of measures to control inflation.

Market Whiplash: How Markets Are Reacting to Trump’s Policy Signals

November 19, 2024
Read More

The Implications of Trump's (likely) Clean Sweep: A Turning Point for the Global Economy

November 13, 2024
Read More

Trump Trade Unwinds: Market Reactions to the U.S. Election Outcome

November 12, 2024
Read More

Markets Hold Steady with Eyes on the U.S. Elections and Economic Updates

October 31, 2024
Read More

Key Insights from the H&B NSW 2024 Wealth Symposium

October 30, 2024
Read More

Markets Mixed as Australia Shows Resilience Amid Global Slowdown Signals

October 30, 2024
Read More

Interest rate sensitivity persists into the new year

August 2, 2024
During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.
Read More

Strong start to the year continues despite recession concerns

August 2, 2024
As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.
Read More

The year of moderation

August 2, 2024
Markets ended up a few percent last week, but only after a mid-week earnings scare triggered by a flat result and weak guidance from Microsoft. This week markets have been a little volatile but flat overall, leaving most markets up 5-10% for January.
Read More

Markets think we're there - but are we?

August 2, 2024
Markets think ‘we’re there’ in the global fight against inflation – but are we? Last week the RBA also proclaimed confidently that local inflation had peaked, so you might think it’s all downhill from here...
Read More

Interest rate nerves as RBA walks a tightrope

August 2, 2024
Markets were again on the back foot last week. However, despite a fair amount of volatility, most markets were flat or only down by 1% or so. There seems to be an ongoing battle of wills between markets and the various central banks who are keen to talk down markets, lest the wealth effects of a buoyant market detract from the ongoing fight against inflation.
Read More

Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise

August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
Read More

Andrew Hunt's visit to New York and some key implications for global markets

August 2, 2024
Last week Andrew visited the InvestSense offices and shared his observations and findings from his visit to the United States, specifically New York.
Read More

Helping your clients assess the climate impact of their Portfolio

August 2, 2024
Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.
Read More

Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?

August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
Read More

Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables

August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
Read More

Bad news equals good news

August 2, 2024
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
Read More

‘Buy the dip’ opportunism start surfacing

August 2, 2024
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
Read More

US momentarily dips into official bear market territory

August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
Read More

How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts

August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
Read More
Icon of a letter

InvestSense insights, delivered straight to your inbox.

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news

Icon of a letter

Get the latest industry news