Markets think ‘we’re there’ in the global fight against inflation – but are we? Last week the RBA also proclaimed confidently that local inflation had peaked, so you might think it’s all downhill from here...

Markets were again on the back foot last week. However, despite a fair amount of volatility, most markets were flat or only down by 1% or so. There seems to be an ongoing battle of wills between markets and the various central banks who are keen to talk down markets, lest the wealth effects of a buoyant market detract from the ongoing fight against inflation.

Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.

Bond yields were up again last week but so were equity markets which was a nice change that lead to the first up week in the last four. In fact, while markets have been on the back foot recently, most commentators have been pleasantly surprised that they haven’t reacted too badly to an apparent wind shift in the gusty inflationary data.

On Friday morning Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had been the 16th largest US bank and a successful S&P 500 company, but by Saturday morning it was bankrupt after a sudden run on its deposit base had rendered it unviable.

Oh what a week! The Four Seasons hit might seem a bit upbeat for the occasion of a banking crisis, but the market has at least got its mojo back in the last few days.