It was a mixed week in global financial markets as the market continued to assess the likelihood of a hard or soft landing next year and the implication for inflation and interest

The last week in markets, as is often the case, was totally dominated by the US economy and monetary policy. In this case it was an encouraging inflation print on Wednesday, followed by the US Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold the next day.

This week started with more optimism about the US economy and further stock market gains until a sharp pullback on Wednesday snapped the US market’s nine-session winning streak. Thursday then saw a recovery, putting the S&P 500 back on track for an eighth week of gains, after US inflation data showed a gradual economic cooling in line with Fed hopes.

After outsized gains in big tech stocks last year, global equities have stumbled over the past week amidst a tech selloff, challenging the notion of their invulnerability and potentially signaling a shift in market optimism tied to recent liquidity trends.

Despite a higher-than-expected rise in US CPI for December 2022, markets remained relatively sanguine over the implications for growth and monetary policy.

Risk assets broadly declined last week as economic data showed resilience and central banks pushed back against aggressive market pricing for rate cuts, puncturing investor hopes.

Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.

Fears of a US recession later this year gathered pace last week and the US equity market jumped by almost 7% and the Nasdaq was up some 9%.

In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.

During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.

As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.

Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.

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In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.

The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.

The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.

Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...