Weekly Market Update

Fluctuating global markets and mixed economic signals in the last week of May

June 4, 2024

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index experienced declines during most of last week but has recovered in recent days to end down just 0.3% at the time of writing. Inflation concerns weighed on sentiment, as unexpectedly high CPI data in April suggested that the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia may be more distant than previously anticipated. This led to broad-based losses across sectors, particularly in industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials. A lower iron ore price on global growth worries also meant the big miners detracted but Anglo American’s rebuffing of BHP’s takeover attempt had the biggest impact.  However, healthcare companies Telix Pharmaceuticals, Pro Medicus bucks the trend on encouraging results while Agricultural stocks like Australian Agricultural Co and Elders benefited from news that China had lifted its ban on Australian beef exports. Lastly, Dominos finally caught a bid, perhaps due to a ground breaking initiative as part of its Japanese roll-out strategy - pineapple injected into the crust mixed with mozzarella.    

Internationally, developed markets as measured by the MSCI World ex Australia Index declined by 0.5% in AUD terms, while emerging markets fared worse with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling 3.6%. U.S. stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, fell 0.5%, while European markets such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and the German DAX were slightly negative for the week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was the best performing international marketer the past week after being the worst performer mid-week.

Nvidia continued to be a major focus in the U.S. market, with its stock contributing significantly to the tech-heavy Nasdaq's gains. However, the biggest moves during the week all happened on Friday in US trading when the Nasdaq fell by 2% before recovering most of those losses within hours. In the first instance a weak result from Salesforce's raised concerns about the broader cloud software industry. The company's slowing growth, attributed to longer sales cycles for large deals and the lack of immediate payoff from the hype surrounding artificial AI, suggests that the sector may be facing challenges in monetising the huge AI related expenses it has incurred. The jump in prices a few hours later was put down to month end rebalancing and all of this overshadowed the much awaited Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation print. As it happened it came in line with expectations at 0.25%. Although the three and six month numbers remain elevated the direction of travel seems to now be in the right direction. Looking forward, attention will likely turn to economic growth and whether this better inflation news is due to a much needed easing of pressure in the US  economy or a sharp deceleration in the consumer economy. 

US CPI beats economists' expectations

August 2, 2024
The most anticipated economic release of the week (and of the month) turned out to be simultaneously shocking and monotonous. The US Consumer Price Index for June came out at 9.1% Year-on-Year increase, much higher than the 8.8% growth predicted by economists.
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Rebound in the Nasdaq

August 2, 2024
Markets were up more or less in unison last week despite, or really because of, largely weak economic data in the US and mixed results from the US earnings season.
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Markets finish off the month with a strong week

August 2, 2024
Markets capped off a strong month with an even stronger week, with the leading US market up 4% for the week and 9% of for the month.
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Japan - marching to a different tune

August 2, 2024
Join Jonathan Ramsay and Andrew Hunt as they discuss how Japan diverts from the norm when it comes to economics.
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Regime change - past winners could become losers and vice-versa?

August 2, 2024
Join Jonathan Ramsay as he discusses the topic of regime changes and whether past winners could become losers and vice-versa?
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US jobs report surprises on the upside

August 2, 2024
Markets were fairly buoyant for most of the week before a very strong US jobs report upon Friday doused investor hopes that the Fed might pause its interesting rate hiking cycle.
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Nvidia Shines Amid Persistent Inflation Concerns in a Mixed Week for Global Markets.

August 2, 2024
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May: A Month of Gains Tempered by Volatility

August 2, 2024
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Fluctuating global markets and mixed economic signals in the last week of May

August 2, 2024
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Tech Gains and Conflicting Economic Signals Drive a Mixed Market

August 2, 2024
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Another good (inflation) and bad (politics) week for markets

August 2, 2024
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Nvidia's Volatile Week & Divergent Global Performance

August 2, 2024
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Markets slid again last week, with a concentrated sell off in US tech

August 2, 2024
Markets slid again last week but the selling was concentrated in US tech, most of which is down 10% or so this year. Much of last week’s selling occurred in the last 2 sessions of the week.
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Recession fears build, yet equity markets end the week higher

August 2, 2024
Fears of a US recession later this year gathered pace last week and the US equity market jumped by almost 7% and the Nasdaq was up some 9%.
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Inflation - Flash Update

August 2, 2024
In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.
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Interest rate sensitivity persists into the new year

August 2, 2024
During the last few weeks, the prospect of rising interest rate expectations continued to grip markets, as the soft landing/rapid disinflation thesis was tested.
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Strong start to the year continues despite recession concerns

August 2, 2024
As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.
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Equities turbulent but resilient as interest rates rise

August 2, 2024
Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.
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Helping your clients assess the climate impact of their Portfolio

August 2, 2024
Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.
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Carbon credits and investing – is it the outcome we expect?

August 2, 2024
ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.
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Better World makes a difference with investment in renewables

August 2, 2024
There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.
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Bad news equals good news

August 2, 2024
In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.
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‘Buy the dip’ opportunism start surfacing

August 2, 2024
The US market finally market caught a bid last week. Early in the week the market was down few percent after an earnings miss by ad dependent social media platform Snap (of Snapchat fame) combined with weak guidance raised more doubts about the economy and economic resilience of tech companies.
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US momentarily dips into official bear market territory

August 2, 2024
The seventh negative week in a row for the US sent it briefly into official bear market territory before it recovered slightly late on Friday. The world’s largest stocks (Apple, Microsoft Amazon and Google) are all down 25%.
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How Mark Lewin saved 13 hours a week with Managed Accounts

August 2, 2024
Mark Lewin was a financial planner, but is now the Director of Back Office Heros. In his planning business he gained significant efficiencies by recommending and implementing managed accounts for his clients. He tells us how...
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