Global economic sentiment shifted in the week as US data strengthened, and Eurozone data weakened. Weaker global economic data raised concerns about central bank hawkishness, leading to a stronger US dollar and weaker currencies. Crude oil prices remained resilient amid supply concerns, while tech stocks led US markets lower as Apple took a hit.

The week of August 28th to September 1st, 2023, saw a delicate balance between economic indicators and market sentiment play out in markets. The United States enjoyed what appears to be Goldilocks labor conditions, with strong job growth and a tightening labor market.

Last week Andrew visited the InvestSense offices and shared his observations and findings from his visit to the United States, specifically New York.

Most markets were flat to slightly positive last week and fairly stable apart from the Nasdaq which traded in a 3% Range.

Last week the InvestSense team spent much of the week preparing for and attending the Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Conference.

Turning points are always messy and if that is what we are experiencing last weeks data was typically noisy.

Last week we saw some volatility creep into markets as we turned the page on a new financial year. US labour data was mixed but just strong enough to suggest that higher rates might be around for a bit longer. This caused some volatility in bond markets, with short term (2 year) rates up again and hitting 15-year highs.

Hopes of a soft economic landing permeated markets last week and even the hapless UK market caught a bid late in the week, leaving it up a percent along with the ASX, while Europe, Japan and he US ended the quarter on a high note, up by 2-3%.

We had intended to retire the AI but following some quite positive feedback (which we don’t usually get) it gets a reprieve.

US inflation moderated, the Federal Reserve temporally paused its rate hiking cycle while consumer sales and sentiment gauges firmed. On the face of it, this looks like an immaculate ‘disinflation’, and the dominant narrative in the press is that a resilient US consumer has fanned hopes of a soft landing.

This week we used a couple of AI programs to produce an AI generated market summary, and then added our own commentary below for comparison.

It may be drawing a long bow but it now seems plausible that, just below the surface, AI inspired optimism has helped markets remain surprising resilient throughout this year, particularly when facing the US regional banking crisis that started in mid-March and more recently the polemic surrounding the US Debt Ceiling.

Last week Andrew visited the InvestSense offices and shared his observations and findings from his visit to the United States, specifically New York.

Last week the S&P 500 traded in a 3% range, having done a 2% round trip on Thursday, followed by a 3% fall on Friday after the inflation data release and then another almost 2% round trip yesterday. Emerging markets were the worst performing, down 4% for the week. Taking a step back though, most equity markets haven’t given back that much of their gains from January, while Europe and the Nasdaq remain up 10% for the year.

As the world’s elite gathered in a snowless Davos, markets focused on much more immediate concerns, starting with the continuing wave of layoffs in corporate America. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Salesforce and Goldman Sachs, among others, took turns to announce staff cuts. It would appear boardrooms and CEOs are lending some credence to the possibility of a recession in 2023.

In light of the recent inflation data coming out of the US, we dive in to why the market is so upset about a 0.1% increase in prices, and what this means from an Australian investor's perspective.

Fears of a US recession later this year gathered pace last week and the US equity market jumped by almost 7% and the Nasdaq was up some 9%.

In recent years professional investors have got increasingly used to the fact that good news is bad news for markets because higher interest rates are likely to be necessary, and of course vice-versa. However, last week the effect was stronger than ever and stocks rallied mid-week amidst reports of widespread lay-offs and expectations of a weak US jobs report.

There are many direct assets and funds that contribute positively to climate action within the InvestSense Better World Portfolios. Meridian Energy is one of the stand-out direct assets in the portfolio with a climate energy focus.

ETFs that invest in carbon credits are now available. Why should we assume that their price will go up over time? And does buying a carbon credit ETF actually contribute positively to emissions reduction? Will it actually generate the outcome investors are expecting? This article explores the issues around investing in carbon credits.

Nathan Fradley explains how the ethosesg technology can help you assess and design an ethical portfolio that aligns to an investor’s personal values.